Finance & Business / Report
One-year inflation expectations rise to 3.9%
Liz Ann Sonders shared the New York Fed’s September consumer survey. Its October 7 release puts median one-year inflation expectations at 3.9%, up 0.3 percentage points and the highest since May 2023. Three-year expectations rose 0.1 point to 3.3%; five-year expectations stayed at 3.0%.
The rotating online panel covers about 1,300 household heads; September responses were collected September 1–30. These are expectations, not measured inflation. Disagreement widened at all three horizons, while the longer-term median remained steady.
Expected household income growth was 3.1% and nominal spending growth 5.5%, but expected earnings growth fell to 2.6%. Perceived chances of finding work after losing a job rose to 46.1%; the perceived probability of higher unemployment fell to 43.9%. The combination is mixed sentiment, not a direct count of jobs or realized spending.
The next question is whether short-term expectations spread to longer horizons. This survey alone establishes neither runaway inflation nor an asset-trading decision. Figures here use the official one-decimal convention.
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